Apple's stock price falls to lowest point in six months

On Friday Apple?s stock price closed at $527.68 per share, the lowest it?s been in six months. Since September, the company has lost about 25 percent of its value from its peak of $702 per share. So what?s gone wrong?

Analysts say that Apple has had a string of misfortunes lately, ranging from missed?earnings estimates,?management shakeups, missteps on mapping software, supply chain problems, and increased pressure from competitors.

"I think it?s the perfect storm for Apple," Van Baker, an analyst with Gartner Research, told Ars. "There?s a combination of a lot of things, and add to that, people are starting to think that Apple won't bring out something that?s truly innovative every few years."

Warning: contents under pressure

As we reported last month, despite the 26 percent year-over-year growth for iPads, many investors were disappointed that Apple wasn?t able to blow through Wall Street?s estimates as it has done in previous quarters.

"Going into earnings we were wondering if the slowing economy will catch up with Wall Street and it has," said Channing Smith, co-manager of the Capital Advisors Growth Fund, told Reuters last month.

That marked the second quarter in a row?where Apple didn?t do nearly as well as many analysts had hoped.

"It?s not that they fell short of the guidance, but they didn?t hit what Wall Street said they would hit," Gartner's Baker, added. "That?s the first time in a long time they haven?t done that."

Other analysts have said that the management changes certainly haven?t inspired confidence among investors either. Within the last two weeks, Apple gave the boot to iOS Software head Scott Forstall and its retail head John Browett. Forstall?s departure was reportedly celebrated by many among Apple?s rank-and-file?he also clashed with Jony Ive, Apple?s legendary creative genius.

"It demonstrates volatility, you had two major people in the organization departing," Rhoda Alexander, the lead analyst for tablets at IHS iSuppli, told Ars. "You have organizational changes, [and that breeds] uncertainty with the market."

Supply chain bottlenecks?

When iOS 6 debuted in September 2012, we noted at the time that Apple?s own Maps app didn?t quite deliver?our own Jacqui Cheng lamented the removal of public transit features: "I have virtually no reason to use Maps otherwise in my daily life, which is why its sudden absence in iOS 6 is deeply disappointing."

CEO Tim Cook, of course, posted an uncharacteristic public apology in late September, going so far as to recommend other alternatives while Apple worked out the problems with its current version.

"Apple has demonstrated through the years that it is very tapped into what that experience is for the user," Alexander added.

Cook has also faced pressure from Hon Hai, the company that owns Foxconn, which assembles the iPhone and many other electronic devices?odd, considering Cook?s own professional experience in supply chain management.

A Hon Hai executive told the Wall Street Journal last month that the iPhone 5 was the "most difficult device that Foxconn has ever assembled."

"The thing that gives people some pause is the statement from Hon Hai that says: 'We can?t build as many iPhone 5s as we want to,'" Baker told Ars. "[Apple] should be able to sell a ton of iPhone 5s, but if they can?t get enough, [the company] may fall short."

Baker added that the final three months of 2012 may prove to be Apple?s best this year, as holiday shopping moves into full swing, but that these manufacturing delays could put a damper on that as well.

Apple's long game

Finally, one of Apple?s biggest problems has been increased competition against the iPad, not just from Android tablets, but from Amazon, and now Microsoft as well.

Since last year, a whole slew of new tablets have been released, and as the Pew Research Center showed in a recent study, Apple?s market share among tablets?while still large?has fallen to just above 50 percent.

"What we?re seeing from early data on the market is that the demand for the mini continues to be very strong?we?re expecting Q4 to be above 10 million units [sold]," Alexander, the IHS iSuppli analyst, added.

"If you looked at market two years ago you had a huge performance gap between also-rans and Apple. What you?ve seen in particular among Android products is that gap narrowing as you move out over time?a lot of these products are aggressively priced. It?s unrealistic to think that Apple will maintain absolute dominance that it once had, but do we anticipate Apple being the top dog? Absolutely."

Fundamentally though, the question remains: can CEO Tim Cook provide the type of consistent, innovative, groundbreaking leadership that Steve Jobs was known for? It?s only been about a year since Jobs? passing, but certainly the pressure is mounting for Apple to maintain its creative edge.

We here at Ars have certainly tried to understand the huge shoes that Cook has to fill, as has anyone who continues to follow the company, whether from Wall Street, Main Street, or from the depths of a comments section. Baker, though, says that this is just a short-term blip for Apple.

"I?m not that concerned with Apple," he concluded. "I think Tim Cook is a very capable CEO. I have a heckuva lot of respect for Jony Ive, Phil Schiller, Eddy Cue and the team that is working on these products and services. I think Apple is going to be just fine. I think they?re going through some gyrations with the stock price right now. The one big question is: are they going to be able to bring a new and truly innovative thing to market? Apple?s business model relies on that."

Source: http://arstechnica.com/apple/2012/11/apples-stock-price-falls-to-lowest-point-in-six-months/

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